In the last few days I’ve repeatedly stumbled on what I originally thought was a rare phenomenon: the closet Fianna Fáil (FF) voter and the addiction that holds them to a party whose recent actions they profess to despise.
But before I get into it properly, I feel I should give you two things.
One, the definition of addiction upon which my premise is based, namely that it is the ‘continued involvement with a substance or activity despite the negative consequences associated with it.’ And two, my premise, that there exists a serious addiction to FF among a certain generation which blinds them to the negative long-term effects of their short-term voting decision.
The idea for this post started last Saturday when a friend of mine confessed that his mother was intending to vote FF almost purely because of Michael Martin’s election as leader of the party. She had been “waiting for an excuse” to get back on the FF band-wagon
Another gentleman I met, let’s call him ‘dad’, had a similar problem. He couldn’t see a way to not vote for FF. He originally rationalised this as a negative choice (the other parties suck so much that FF is the only way to go). But considering the similarities between Irish political parties (the usual complaint) that doesn’t really seem sufficient.
Furthermore, he knew that FF, level of complicity aside, was in some way responsible for the present state of Ireland’s economy. An unemployment rate of 13%, a fall in GDP of 7 per cent in 2009 alone and a IMF/ EU straightjacket around us all being the kind of things a government really has to take some responsibility for. Whether or not the bank guarantee would have been foisted upon us by any other administration is a moot point.
So should some element of moral hazard not be exercised as a future deterrent?
Apparently not. ‘Dad’ couldn’t see fit to punish them for their past mistakes and argued for a ‘we are where we are’ form of voting. He wants to ignore a party’s immediate history in favour of current policies- policies which are designed to push this exact mindset (FF know they won’t get into power so their manifesto-see here- is mostly bluster aimed at capturing a few undecided heads).
With each incidence of FF-love I came across (and there were others) I became less sure of the rarity of these strange beasts and more concerned about FF’s chances of getting into the middle to high 20s come polling day (their currently polling at around 15%- see here)
This seems a perfect example of addiction. Draw a parallel with a cigarette smoker if you will. For them, every cigarette smoked is the process of an internal cost-benefit calculation and the short-term hit usually ends up winning. There is little physical addiction and most of the need (past about a three day threshold) is scenario driven- the smoker must accept a different lifestyle now in exchange for his long-term benefit.
The creature of habit is forced to into short-term sacrifices for a benefit that is pretty darn impossible to grasp.
And so it is in politics, a vote for Fine Gael or Labour guarantees nothing. All that is on the table is rhetoric. Campaign promises do not sureties give and anyone who lived through the 1980’s must take promises of economic revival with large measures of salt. FF is the devil we know and, as has been seen before, loyalty can overcome many obstacles.
That is the nub of the problem. For all of the catastrophe that FF drew down upon us there is no doubt that Ireland has boomed under them as it has under no other party. The reasons for this are manifold and include coincidence and chimera. But the perception is very real. FF succeeded where FG and coalitions could not and their current mid-teen polling figures may hide a fair bit of support.
There have been hidden Tories in the past (the 1992 Westminster election when "final polls were out by over 8 percentage points, underestimating the Conservative vote by 4 per cent, overestimating Labour support by a similar amount, and thus failing to forecast the Tory victory"- full article here) and if the Bradley effect existed (it does not- see here), it would be a handy way to parallel this article.
No matter. The proof will be in the voting and anyone out there hiding their FF colours will have to come out of the closet at some stage.
No comments:
Post a Comment